About Hand of the Market

Hand of the Market shows where company insiders and well-known funds put their own money, and checks each company against its fundamentals. Everything comes from public filings, and every signal is explained rather than scored.

What you'll find

Insider buys: directors and officers who bought their own company's shares on the open market, ranked by how much conviction the buying shows.
Funds: what concentrated "conviction" funds, the largest active managers and the biggest actively managed mutual funds and ETFs bought and sold in their latest reports.
Sectors: where insiders buy broadly, fundamentals improve and active funds add.
A page per company, fund, sector and industry, and a screener of quality, growth, valuation and ownership factors.

It covers about 1,500 US large, mid and small caps.

How insider buys are chosen

Only open-market purchases (Form 4, transaction code P) by directors and officers count. Trades under a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan, option exercises, grants and gifts are left out, and amended filings replace the originals. A company earns a badge, explained in words, for each of these:

two or more insiders buying in the period;
the CEO, CFO, President or Chair buying;
a purchase of at least 25% of the insider's stake, or a new position, worth $50,000 or more;
$1 million or more bought by its insiders together;
tracked conviction funds buying in their latest 13F quarter.

Companies are ranked by the number of badges, then the number of insiders, then the amount.

The quality checklist

Each company shows which checks its latest reported quarter passes, with the value behind each:

Most companies	Banks and insurers
Return on invested capital at least 10%	Return on tangible equity at least 10%
Operating margin up over 3 years	Efficiency ratio at most 60%
Free cash flow at least 80% of net income	Equity at least 8% of assets
Net debt at most 3× EBITDA
Share count up at most 5% in 3 years	Share count up at most 5% in 3 years
Revenue grew over 3 years	Revenue grew over 3 years

Funds

Fund holdings come from Form 13F (investment managers' quarterly holdings) and Form N-PORT (single mutual funds and ETFs). Each report is compared with the same fund's previous one. Index funds are left out, because their buying follows money flows, not views. 13F reports arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends and show long US positions only: they show where the money stood, not today's trades.

Our own estimates

Values labelled HoM est. (forward growth, forward P/E and PEG) are Hand of the Market's own estimates, built from each company's reported revenue growth and earnings. They are not analysts' consensus forecasts; forward P/E and PEG are shown for profitable companies only; and they can be well off, so treat them as a rough guide.

Data sources

SEC EDGAR: Forms 4 (insider trades), 10-Q and 10-K (financial statements), 13F, N-PORT and N-CEN (fund holdings). Public domain.
FINRA: short interest, published twice a month.
IEX: daily prices. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use.

Industries follow the US government's SIC codes, grouped into sectors. Insider trades are updated every weekday evening (US Eastern time), prices the next morning, financial statements weekly, and fund holdings as each quarter's filings are published.

Not investment advice

These signals are starting points for your own research, not recommendations to buy or sell anything. Data can contain errors or lag the filings: check the filing, which every trade links to, before relying on a number. See the terms of use.

Contact

Questions, corrections and suggestions: [email protected].