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Capital flows

Where money is leaning: between stocks and bonds, along the Treasury curve, and between sectors — from Treasury yields, futures positions, company filings and what funds and insiders actually bought.

Stocks vs. bonds, last 3 years

10-year − 2-year Treasury spread
-0.5%0.0%0.7%10y − 2y, Oct '23: -0.1%10y − 2y, Nov '23: -0.3%10y − 2y, Nov '23: -0.4%10y − 2y, Nov '23: -0.4%10y − 2y, Nov '23: -0.5%10y − 2y, Dec '23: -0.3%10y − 2y, Dec '23: -0.5%10y − 2y, Dec '23: -0.5%10y − 2y, Dec '23: -0.4%10y − 2y, Dec '23: -0.3%10y − 2y, Jan '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Jan '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Jan '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Jan '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Feb '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Feb '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Feb '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Feb '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Mar '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Mar '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Mar '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Mar '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Mar '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Apr '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Apr '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Apr '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Apr '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, May '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, May '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, May '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, May '24: -0.5%10y − 2y, May '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Jun '24: -0.4%10y − 2y, Jun '24: -0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '24: -0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '24: -0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Jul '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Aug '24: -0.1%10y − 2y, Aug '24: -0.1%10y − 2y, Aug '24: -0.2%10y − 2y, Aug '24: -0.1%10y − 2y, Aug '24: 0.0%10y − 2y, Sep '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Sep '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Sep '24: 0.2%10y − 2y, Sep '24: 0.2%10y − 2y, Oct '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Oct '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Oct '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Oct '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Nov '24: 0.2%10y − 2y, Nov '24: 0.0%10y − 2y, Nov '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Nov '24: 0.0%10y − 2y, Nov '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Dec '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Dec '24: 0.1%10y − 2y, Dec '24: 0.2%10y − 2y, Dec '24: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jan '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jan '25: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jan '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jan '25: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jan '25: 0.4%10y − 2y, Feb '25: 0.2%10y − 2y, Feb '25: 0.2%10y − 2y, Feb '25: 0.2%10y − 2y, Feb '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Mar '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Mar '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Mar '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Mar '25: 0.4%10y − 2y, Apr '25: 0.3%10y − 2y, Apr '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Apr '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Apr '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, May '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Jul '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jul '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jul '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Jul '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Aug '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Aug '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Sep '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Sep '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Sep '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Sep '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Oct '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Oct '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Oct '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Oct '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Oct '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Nov '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Nov '25: 0.5%10y − 2y, Nov '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Nov '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Dec '25: 0.6%10y − 2y, Dec '25: 0.7%10y − 2y, Dec '25: 0.7%10y − 2y, Dec '25: 0.7%10y − 2y, Jan '26: 0.7%10y − 2y, Jan '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Jan '26: 0.7%10y − 2y, Jan '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Jan '26: 0.7%10y − 2y, Feb '26: 0.7%10y − 2y, Feb '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Feb '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Feb '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Mar '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Mar '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Mar '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Mar '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Apr '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Apr '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Apr '26: 0.6%10y − 2y, Apr '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, May '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, May '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Jun '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jun '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jun '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jun '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Jul '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jul '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Jul '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Aug '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Sep '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Sep '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Sep '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Sep '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Oct '26: 0.5%10y − 2y, Oct '26: 0.4%10y − 2y, Oct '26: 0.3%10y − 2y, Oct '26: 0.3%Mar '24Sep '24Apr '25Oct '25Apr '26Oct '26
10y − 2y
Large-cap earnings yield vs. the 10-year Treasury
-1.4%0.0%5.3%Earnings yield, Sep '26: 3.9%Earnings yield, Oct '26: 3.9%Earnings yield, Oct '26: 3.9%Earnings yield, Oct '26: 3.9%Earnings yield, Oct '26: 4.0%10-year yield, Oct '23: 4.8%10-year yield, Nov '23: 4.6%10-year yield, Nov '23: 4.6%10-year yield, Nov '23: 4.4%10-year yield, Nov '23: 4.5%10-year yield, Dec '23: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '23: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '23: 3.9%10-year yield, Dec '23: 3.9%10-year yield, Dec '23: 3.9%10-year yield, Jan '24: 4.0%10-year yield, Jan '24: 4.0%10-year yield, Jan '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Jan '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Feb '24: 4.0%10-year yield, Feb '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Feb '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Feb '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Mar '24: 4.1%10-year yield, Mar '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Mar '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Apr '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Apr '24: 4.5%10-year yield, Apr '24: 4.6%10-year yield, Apr '24: 4.7%10-year yield, May '24: 4.5%10-year yield, May '24: 4.5%10-year yield, May '24: 4.4%10-year yield, May '24: 4.5%10-year yield, May '24: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Jun '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Jun '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Jun '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Jul '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Jul '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Jul '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Jul '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Aug '24: 3.8%10-year yield, Aug '24: 3.9%10-year yield, Aug '24: 3.9%10-year yield, Aug '24: 3.8%10-year yield, Aug '24: 3.9%10-year yield, Sep '24: 3.7%10-year yield, Sep '24: 3.7%10-year yield, Sep '24: 3.7%10-year yield, Sep '24: 3.8%10-year yield, Oct '24: 4.0%10-year yield, Oct '24: 4.1%10-year yield, Oct '24: 4.1%10-year yield, Oct '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Nov '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Nov '24: 4.3%10-year yield, Nov '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Nov '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Nov '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '24: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '24: 4.4%10-year yield, Dec '24: 4.5%10-year yield, Dec '24: 4.6%10-year yield, Jan '25: 4.6%10-year yield, Jan '25: 4.8%10-year yield, Jan '25: 4.6%10-year yield, Jan '25: 4.6%10-year yield, Jan '25: 4.6%10-year yield, Feb '25: 4.5%10-year yield, Feb '25: 4.5%10-year yield, Feb '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Feb '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Mar '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Apr '25: 4.0%10-year yield, Apr '25: 4.5%10-year yield, Apr '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Apr '25: 4.3%10-year yield, May '25: 4.3%10-year yield, May '25: 4.4%10-year yield, May '25: 4.4%10-year yield, May '25: 4.5%10-year yield, May '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Jun '25: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Jun '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Jun '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Jul '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Jul '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Jul '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Jul '25: 4.4%10-year yield, Aug '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Aug '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Aug '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Aug '25: 4.3%10-year yield, Aug '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Sep '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Sep '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Sep '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Sep '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Oct '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Oct '25: 4.0%10-year yield, Oct '25: 4.0%10-year yield, Oct '25: 4.0%10-year yield, Oct '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Nov '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Nov '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Nov '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Nov '25: 4.0%10-year yield, Dec '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Dec '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '25: 4.2%10-year yield, Dec '25: 4.1%10-year yield, Jan '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Jan '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Jan '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Jan '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Jan '26: 4.3%10-year yield, Feb '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Feb '26: 4.0%10-year yield, Feb '26: 4.1%10-year yield, Feb '26: 4.0%10-year yield, Mar '26: 4.2%10-year yield, Mar '26: 4.3%10-year yield, Mar '26: 4.4%10-year yield, Mar '26: 4.4%10-year yield, Apr '26: 4.3%10-year yield, Apr '26: 4.3%10-year yield, Apr '26: 4.3%10-year yield, Apr '26: 4.3%10-year yield, May '26: 4.4%10-year yield, May '26: 4.4%10-year yield, May '26: 4.6%10-year yield, May '26: 4.6%10-year yield, May '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jun '26: 4.4%10-year yield, Jul '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jul '26: 4.6%10-year yield, Jul '26: 4.5%10-year yield, Jul '26: 4.7%10-year yield, Jul '26: 4.8%10-year yield, Aug '26: 4.7%10-year yield, Aug '26: 4.7%10-year yield, Aug '26: 4.7%10-year yield, Aug '26: 4.7%10-year yield, Sep '26: 4.8%10-year yield, Sep '26: 5.0%10-year yield, Sep '26: 5.0%10-year yield, Sep '26: 5.2%10-year yield, Oct '26: 5.3%10-year yield, Oct '26: 5.2%10-year yield, Oct '26: 5.1%10-year yield, Oct '26: 5.0%Equity risk premium, Sep '26: -1.3%Equity risk premium, Oct '26: -1.4%Equity risk premium, Oct '26: -1.4%Equity risk premium, Oct '26: -1.1%Equity risk premium, Oct '26: -1.0%Premium, average, Sep '26: -1.3%Premium, average, Oct '26: -1.3%Premium, average, Oct '26: -1.3%Premium, average, Oct '26: -1.3%Premium, average, Oct '26: -1.3%Mar '24Sep '24Apr '25Oct '25Apr '26Oct '26
Earnings yield10-year yieldEquity risk premiumPremium, average
Stocks vs. long bonds: SPY ÷ TLT
-3.9%0.0%2.7%SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week, Sep '26: 0.0%SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week, Oct '26: 2.2%SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week, Oct '26: 2.7%SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week, Oct '26: -1.9%SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week, Oct '26: -3.9%Mar '24Sep '24Apr '25Oct '25Apr '26Oct '26
SPY ÷ TLT, since the first week60-day correlation (right)

Equity risk premium -1.02 pp on 2026-10-23, against an average of -1.30 pp: the smaller it is, the less stocks pay over bonds. SPY ÷ TLT rising means stocks beat long bonds; a negative correlation means bonds still hedge stocks. Large-cap earnings yield: the combined trailing-12-month net income of the ~500 largest US companies we track ÷ their combined market cap, losses included.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, Earnings: SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K); prices: IEX Historical Data.

Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use. Terms of use

The rates backdrop: the Treasury yield curve, last 3 months

2026-10-23 newest · dashed: 2026-07-27
3.5%3.75%4.0%4.25%4.5%4.75%5.0%5.25%5.5%5.75%6.0%1M3M1Y2Y5Y10Y30Y
10-year Treasury
5.00%+35 bp in 62 sessions
2-year Treasury
4.69%+38 bp in 62 sessions
10y − 2y
+31 bp
10y − 3m
+78 bp
Fed funds (EFFR)
3.88%target 3.75–4.00%
SOFR
3.90%2026-10-22
10-year real (TIPS)
2.66%2026-10-23
10-year breakeven inflation
2.34%
Spreads over the last year, basis points — below zero the curve is inverted 10y − 2y 10y − 3m
050100150NovJanMarMayJulSep

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, EFFR and SOFR. Treasury par yields as of 2026-10-23.

Bond flows: where duration money is moving

Duration bets: net Treasury futures, in 10-year-note equivalents
-9.8M011.9MAsset managers, Oct '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Nov '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Nov '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Nov '23: 7.2MAsset managers, Nov '23: 7.2MAsset managers, Dec '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Dec '23: 7.1MAsset managers, Dec '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Dec '23: 7.3MAsset managers, Jan '24: 7.6MAsset managers, Jan '24: 7.5MAsset managers, Jan '24: 7.4MAsset managers, Jan '24: 7.4MAsset managers, Jan '24: 7.5MAsset managers, Feb '24: 7.4MAsset managers, Feb '24: 7MAsset managers, Feb '24: 7MAsset managers, Feb '24: 6.7MAsset managers, Mar '24: 6.7MAsset managers, Mar '24: 6.5MAsset managers, Mar '24: 6.4MAsset managers, Mar '24: 6.4MAsset managers, Apr '24: 6.6MAsset managers, Apr '24: 6.5MAsset managers, Apr '24: 7.3MAsset managers, Apr '24: 7.5MAsset managers, Apr '24: 7.7MAsset managers, May '24: 7.7MAsset managers, May '24: 8MAsset managers, May '24: 8MAsset managers, May '24: 7.9MAsset managers, Jun '24: 7.8MAsset managers, Jun '24: 8MAsset managers, Jun '24: 8.1MAsset managers, Jun '24: 8.2MAsset managers, Jul '24: 8.4MAsset managers, Jul '24: 8.4MAsset managers, Jul '24: 8.6MAsset managers, Jul '24: 8.6MAsset managers, Jul '24: 9MAsset managers, Aug '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Aug '24: 9.2MAsset managers, Aug '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Aug '24: 8.7MAsset managers, Sep '24: 8.7MAsset managers, Sep '24: 8.9MAsset managers, Sep '24: 9MAsset managers, Sep '24: 9MAsset managers, Oct '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Oct '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Oct '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Oct '24: 9.2MAsset managers, Oct '24: 9.4MAsset managers, Nov '24: 9.4MAsset managers, Nov '24: 9.4MAsset managers, Nov '24: 9.3MAsset managers, Nov '24: 9MAsset managers, Dec '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Dec '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Dec '24: 9.1MAsset managers, Dec '24: 9.3MAsset managers, Dec '24: 9.4MAsset managers, Jan '25: 9.3MAsset managers, Jan '25: 9.2MAsset managers, Jan '25: 9.2MAsset managers, Jan '25: 9.3MAsset managers, Feb '25: 9.3MAsset managers, Feb '25: 9.2MAsset managers, Feb '25: 9MAsset managers, Feb '25: 8.9MAsset managers, Mar '25: 9.1MAsset managers, Mar '25: 9MAsset managers, Mar '25: 9MAsset managers, Mar '25: 9MAsset managers, Apr '25: 9.5MAsset managers, Apr '25: 9.8MAsset managers, Apr '25: 9.9MAsset managers, Apr '25: 10.3MAsset managers, Apr '25: 10.3MAsset managers, May '25: 10.5MAsset managers, May '25: 10.3MAsset managers, May '25: 10.1MAsset managers, May '25: 9.3MAsset managers, Jun '25: 9.8MAsset managers, Jun '25: 9.8MAsset managers, Jun '25: 10MAsset managers, Jun '25: 10MAsset managers, Jul '25: 10.7MAsset managers, Jul '25: 10.7MAsset managers, Jul '25: 10.5MAsset managers, Jul '25: 10.1MAsset managers, Jul '25: 10.3MAsset managers, Aug '25: 10.5MAsset managers, Aug '25: 10.7MAsset managers, Aug '25: 11MAsset managers, Aug '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Sep '25: 11MAsset managers, Sep '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Sep '25: 10.8MAsset managers, Sep '25: 10.6MAsset managers, Sep '25: 10.6MAsset managers, Oct '25: 10.5MAsset managers, Oct '25: 10.5MAsset managers, Oct '25: 10.8MAsset managers, Oct '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Nov '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Nov '25: 11.1MAsset managers, Nov '25: 11.2MAsset managers, Nov '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Dec '25: 11MAsset managers, Dec '25: 10.9MAsset managers, Dec '25: 11.1MAsset managers, Dec '25: 11.1MAsset managers, Dec '25: 11.2MAsset managers, Jan '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Jan '26: 11.3MAsset managers, Jan '26: 11MAsset managers, Jan '26: 11.3MAsset managers, Feb '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Feb '26: 11.6MAsset managers, Feb '26: 11.9MAsset managers, Feb '26: 11.3MAsset managers, Mar '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Mar '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Mar '26: 11.3MAsset managers, Mar '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Mar '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Apr '26: 11.5MAsset managers, Apr '26: 11.6MAsset managers, Apr '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Apr '26: 11.2MAsset managers, May '26: 11.1MAsset managers, May '26: 11MAsset managers, May '26: 11.2MAsset managers, May '26: 10.7MAsset managers, Jun '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Jun '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Jun '26: 11.6MAsset managers, Jun '26: 11.7MAsset managers, Jun '26: 11.5MAsset managers, Jul '26: 11.7MAsset managers, Jul '26: 11.6MAsset managers, Jul '26: 11.6MAsset managers, Jul '26: 11.8MAsset managers, Aug '26: 11.5MAsset managers, Aug '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Aug '26: 11.5MAsset managers, Aug '26: 11.4MAsset managers, Sep '26: 11.3MAsset managers, Sep '26: 11.2MAsset managers, Sep '26: 10.8MAsset managers, Sep '26: 10.6MAsset managers, Sep '26: 10.5MAsset managers, Oct '26: 10.5MAsset managers, Oct '26: 10.7MAsset managers, Oct '26: 10.8MLeveraged funds, Oct '23: -7.3MLeveraged funds, Nov '23: -7.2MLeveraged funds, Nov '23: -7.2MLeveraged funds, Nov '23: -7.2MLeveraged funds, Nov '23: -6.9MLeveraged funds, Dec '23: -7MLeveraged funds, Dec '23: -6.9MLeveraged funds, Dec '23: -7MLeveraged funds, Dec '23: -7.1MLeveraged funds, Jan '24: -7.3MLeveraged funds, Jan '24: -7.1MLeveraged funds, Jan '24: -7.1MLeveraged funds, Jan '24: -7.1MLeveraged funds, Jan '24: -7.4MLeveraged funds, Feb '24: -7.4MLeveraged funds, Feb '24: -7.1MLeveraged funds, Feb '24: -6.8MLeveraged funds, Feb '24: -6.5MLeveraged funds, Mar '24: -6.5MLeveraged funds, Mar '24: -6.5MLeveraged funds, Mar '24: -6.4MLeveraged funds, Mar '24: -6.3MLeveraged funds, Apr '24: -6.5MLeveraged funds, Apr '24: -6.4MLeveraged funds, Apr '24: -6.8MLeveraged funds, Apr '24: -6.9MLeveraged funds, Apr '24: -7.1MLeveraged funds, May '24: -7.3MLeveraged funds, May '24: -7.5MLeveraged funds, May '24: -7.7MLeveraged funds, May '24: -7.5MLeveraged funds, Jun '24: -7.7MLeveraged funds, Jun '24: -7.6MLeveraged funds, Jun '24: -7.8MLeveraged funds, Jun '24: -8MLeveraged funds, Jul '24: -8MLeveraged funds, Jul '24: -8MLeveraged funds, Jul '24: -8.5MLeveraged funds, Jul '24: -8.5MLeveraged funds, Jul '24: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Aug '24: -9MLeveraged funds, Aug '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Aug '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Aug '24: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Sep '24: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Sep '24: -9MLeveraged funds, Sep '24: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Sep '24: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Oct '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Oct '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Oct '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Oct '24: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Oct '24: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Nov '24: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Nov '24: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Nov '24: -9MLeveraged funds, Nov '24: -8.5MLeveraged funds, Dec '24: -8.5MLeveraged funds, Dec '24: -8.4MLeveraged funds, Dec '24: -8.3MLeveraged funds, Dec '24: -8.1MLeveraged funds, Dec '24: -8.2MLeveraged funds, Jan '25: -8MLeveraged funds, Jan '25: -7.7MLeveraged funds, Jan '25: -7.7MLeveraged funds, Jan '25: -8MLeveraged funds, Feb '25: -8.2MLeveraged funds, Feb '25: -8.2MLeveraged funds, Feb '25: -7.8MLeveraged funds, Feb '25: -7.6MLeveraged funds, Mar '25: -8MLeveraged funds, Mar '25: -8MLeveraged funds, Mar '25: -8.1MLeveraged funds, Mar '25: -8MLeveraged funds, Apr '25: -8.4MLeveraged funds, Apr '25: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Apr '25: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Apr '25: -9MLeveraged funds, Apr '25: -9.1MLeveraged funds, May '25: -9.4MLeveraged funds, May '25: -9.3MLeveraged funds, May '25: -9.3MLeveraged funds, May '25: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jun '25: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jun '25: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Jun '25: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Jun '25: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Jul '25: -9MLeveraged funds, Jul '25: -9.1MLeveraged funds, Jul '25: -9MLeveraged funds, Jul '25: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jul '25: -9MLeveraged funds, Aug '25: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Aug '25: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Aug '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Aug '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Sep '25: -9.8MLeveraged funds, Sep '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Sep '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Sep '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Sep '25: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Oct '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Oct '25: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Oct '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Oct '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Nov '25: -9.7MLeveraged funds, Nov '25: -9.7MLeveraged funds, Nov '25: -9.8MLeveraged funds, Nov '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Dec '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Dec '25: -9.7MLeveraged funds, Dec '25: -9.6MLeveraged funds, Dec '25: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Dec '25: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Jan '26: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Jan '26: -9.5MLeveraged funds, Jan '26: -9.4MLeveraged funds, Jan '26: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Feb '26: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Feb '26: -9.1MLeveraged funds, Feb '26: -9.3MLeveraged funds, Feb '26: -9.1MLeveraged funds, Mar '26: -9MLeveraged funds, Mar '26: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Mar '26: -9.2MLeveraged funds, Mar '26: -9MLeveraged funds, Mar '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Apr '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Apr '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Apr '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Apr '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, May '26: -9MLeveraged funds, May '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, May '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, May '26: -8.5MLeveraged funds, Jun '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jun '26: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Jun '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Jun '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jun '26: -8.8MLeveraged funds, Jul '26: -9MLeveraged funds, Jul '26: -9MLeveraged funds, Jul '26: -9MLeveraged funds, Jul '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Aug '26: -8.9MLeveraged funds, Aug '26: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Aug '26: -8.7MLeveraged funds, Aug '26: -8.4MLeveraged funds, Sep '26: -8.6MLeveraged funds, Sep '26: -8.3MLeveraged funds, Sep '26: -7.9MLeveraged funds, Sep '26: -7.8MLeveraged funds, Sep '26: -7.9MLeveraged funds, Oct '26: -7.7MLeveraged funds, Oct '26: -7.8MLeveraged funds, Oct '26: -7.9MApr '24Oct '24Apr '25Oct '25Apr '26Oct '26
Asset managersLeveraged funds

Treasury ETF ladder: price returns

Maturity1 week1 month3 months
BIL1–3 month bills0.1%——
SHY1–3 years0.2%——
IEI3–7 years0.4%——
IEF7–10 years0.7%——
TLH10–20 years1.3%——
TLT20+ years1.6%——

Long maturities beating short ones means buyers are reaching for duration (or yields are falling). Returns show once the price history covers the period.

By maturity, week of 2026-10-20

ContractAsset managers, netWeek's changeShare of open interestAgainst the last 3 yearsLeveraged funds, netWeek's change
2-year note+1,723,580−72,28638.0%21st percentile−1,285,548+81,860
5-year note+2,928,052−56,90043.6%37th percentile−2,117,544−13,153
10-year note+2,925,416+26,85449.9%near the top−2,107,224+98,713
Ultra 10-year+737,266−60,22827.7%86th percentile−318,477+17,381
Treasury bond+388,007−3,52721.7%near the bottom−162,757−8,737
Ultra bond+849,383+72,89135.9%13th percentile−804,808−89,079

Positions as of each Tuesday, published by the CFTC the Friday after. Asset managers — pension funds, insurers, mutual funds — hold Treasury futures as a cheap way to own duration; leveraged funds are mostly short the futures against cash bonds (the basis trade), so their position mirrors the asset managers'. In 10-year equivalents each contract is weighted by its approximate interest-rate risk, so a long-bond contract counts about twice a 10-year note.

Sources: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (futures only), weekly; Treasury ETF prices: IEX Historical Data.

Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use. Terms of use

Sector rotation: where funds and insiders are moving

Funds' net buying is each fund's latest quarterly report against its previous one, valued at today's prices so a price move alone isn't buying. Insider buyers: companies where a director or officer bought on the open market in the last 90 days.

8 funds · each fund's latest report against its previous one
SectorFunds' net buying, last quarterFunds buyingCompanies with insider buyersInsider net, 90 daysShort interest (median)
Industrials$2.56B5 of 813.6% −0.8 pp-$949.73M4.6%
Consumer Staples$2.4B5 of 815.3% −4.4 pp-$135.59M5.1% +0.2 pp
Materials$2.32B3 of 810.8% -$172.29M5.0% +0.6 pp
Real Estate$346.74M3 of 814.0% −5.6 pp-$136.44M5.4% +0.9 pp
Utilities$223.52M5 of 814.7% +7.4 pp-$11.29M4.3% +0.2 pp
Consumer Discretionary$170.79M3 of 811.9% −0.5 pp-$1.35B7.3% +0.6 pp
Energy-$955.63M3 of 813.7% −2.0 pp-$470.4M6.9% +0.4 pp
Health Care-$4.96B5 of 87.1% −7.8 pp-$1.25B6.0% −0.3 pp
Communication Services-$9.42B3 of 88.1% −2.7 pp-$80.56M7.0% −0.1 pp
Financials-$21.11B2 of 811.1% −6.4 pp-$605.31M4.4% +0.3 pp
Information Technology-$24.13B2 of 86.9% −2.5 pp-$3.07B5.5% −0.1 pp

Insider and short-interest changes against 2026-07-24. SEC EDGAR (Forms 4, 10-Q, 10-K, 13F, N-PORT) and FINRA short interest.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury (yields); CFTC (Treasury futures positions); SEC EDGAR (Forms 4, 10-Q, 10-K, 13F and N-PORT); FINRA (short interest). Earnings yield, equity risk premium and sector figures computed by Hand of the Market from the filings; prices where shown from IEX Historical Data.

Not investment advice. These signals are starting points for research, not recommendations. Data may contain errors or lag the filings.